Fantasy football has grown into a phenomenon over the years, captivating the hearts and minds of millions of fans around the world. It’s a game that combines strategy, statistics, and pure passion for the sport, allowing individuals to build their dream team of NFL players and compete against friends or fellow enthusiasts. One of the most crucial decisions in fantasy football is determining which position to draft first. Should you prioritize a star quarterback, a stud running back, a top-tier wide receiver, or perhaps a dominant tight end? In this comprehensive guide, we will delve into the factors that should influence your decision when choosing your first pick in fantasy football.
Understanding the Scoring System
Before we dive into the specifics of which position to draft first, it’s crucial to understand the scoring system of your fantasy league. Different leagues may have slightly different rules and scoring settings, which can significantly impact your draft strategy. Common scoring systems in fantasy football include standard scoring, PPR (Points Per Reception), and half-PPR. Each of these systems places different emphasis on various positions.
In a standard scoring league, running backs tend to have an advantage as they accumulate points for yards gained and touchdowns scored. Wide receivers, on the other hand, usually get fewer points per catch.
In PPR leagues, wide receivers and pass-catching running backs gain an edge as they receive additional points for each reception, making them more valuable compared to standard scoring leagues.
Half-PPR leagues strike a balance between the two, rewarding pass-catchers while still giving running backs their due.
Factor in Your Draft Position
Your draft position plays a significant role in determining your first-round pick. In most fantasy football leagues, the draft order is determined either randomly or based on the previous season’s performance. If you have an early draft position (e.g., picking first, second, or third overall), you’ll have a different set of choices compared to someone with a later draft position (e.g., picking ninth, tenth, or twelfth overall).
Early Draft Position (1-3): If you’re fortunate enough to pick early, you have the opportunity to secure an elite running back or quarterback. Running backs like Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry and elite quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen are excellent choices here.
Mid Draft Position (4-7): In the middle of the first round, you’ll have to consider a broader range of options. Depending on your league’s scoring system and player availability, you might lean towards an elite running back or an elite wide receiver, such as Tyreek Hill or Stefon Diggs.
Late Draft Position (8-12): Those with late draft positions often face tougher decisions. By this point, most of the top-tier running backs and wide receivers may be off the board. It might be wise to consider an elite tight end like Travis Kelce or George Kittle if they’re available, as they provide a unique advantage at the position.
Positional Scarcity
Another critical factor to consider when determining your first-round pick is positional scarcity. This concept revolves around the idea that certain positions have a limited number of elite players, making them more valuable. Historically, running back has been the position with the highest level of scarcity, followed by wide receiver and quarterback. Let’s break down each position’s scarcity:
Running Backs: Running backs are the backbone of many fantasy football teams, as they consistently earn points through rushing yards, touchdowns, and receptions. The problem is that there are only a handful of true workhorse running backs in the NFL, making them extremely valuable in fantasy. If you can secure an elite running back, it can provide a significant advantage.
Wide Receivers: While there is more depth at wide receiver compared to running back, there are still only a limited number of elite wideouts who consistently produce high fantasy points. Targeting a top-tier receiver early can be a sound strategy, especially in PPR leagues.
Quarterbacks: Quarterbacks tend to be the most abundant position in fantasy football. While there are elite options, many quarterbacks can deliver consistent points. As such, it’s often recommended to wait on drafting a quarterback until later rounds unless a truly exceptional option is available.
Tight Ends: Tight ends have historically been the scarcest position in fantasy football. A select few, like Travis Kelce and George Kittle, are in a league of their own and can provide a substantial advantage. If you can secure one of these elite tight ends, it might be worth considering them early in your draft.
Consider Tier-Based Drafting
Tier-based drafting involves grouping players at each position into tiers based on their expected fantasy production. This approach allows you to make informed decisions on when to draft players within each tier. In essence, it helps you prioritize positions without getting locked into a specific player.
For example, you might have the following tiers for running backs:
- Tier 1: Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry
- Tier 2: Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara
- Tier 3: Ezekiel Elliott, Aaron Jones
- Tier 4: Joe Mixon, Najee Harris
- Tier 5: Chris Carson, D’Andre Swift
If you’re drafting early in the first round, you would ideally target a running back from Tier 1 or Tier 2, as they are the elite options. If all of those running backs are gone, you might pivot to the top-tier wide receivers or a star quarterback, depending on your league’s scoring system and your personal preferences.
Conversely, if you have a late draft position, you may want to consider the remaining running backs in Tier 3 or Tier 4, but only if there isn’t a top-tier tight end available.
By adopting a tier-based approach, you’re more adaptable to the ever-changing dynamics of a fantasy football draft, ensuring that you secure the best value at each position.
The Zero-RB Strategy
In recent years, a strategy known as the “Zero-RB” approach has gained traction among fantasy football enthusiasts. This strategy involves intentionally de-prioritizing running backs in the early rounds of the draft and focusing on other positions like wide receiver and tight end.
The Zero-RB strategy is built on several premises:
Running Backs Are Injury-Prone: Running backs tend to suffer more injuries than players at other positions due to the physical demands of the position. By waiting to draft running backs, you reduce the risk of investing heavily in a player who may get injured.
PPR Scoring: In PPR leagues, wide receivers and pass-catching running backs can accumulate significant points through receptions. By stocking up on these players, you can compensate for the lack of a stud running back.
Late-Round Gems: Late-round running backs can emerge as productive fantasy assets, especially if the starter ahead of them gets injured or underperforms. Savvy fantasy managers can find value in the later rounds of the draft.
While the Zero-RB strategy can be effective in certain situations, it’s not a one-size-fits-all approach. It works best when you have a later draft position and the top-tier running backs are off the board. Keep in mind that this strategy requires careful planning and a good understanding of your league’s scoring system.
The Value of Elite Quarterbacks
Historically, fantasy football advice often suggested waiting to draft quarterbacks, as the position tends to have more depth compared to running backs and wide receivers. However, recent trends in the NFL have elevated the value of elite quarterbacks, particularly those who can contribute both as passers and rushers.
Quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson offer a unique advantage due to their ability to accumulate points not only through passing touchdowns but also rushing yards and touchdowns. In fantasy football, these dual-threat quarterbacks can provide a substantial scoring boost.
If you’re in a league where quarterbacks are awarded a significant number of points for passing and rushing stats, it might make sense to consider an elite quarterback as your first-round pick, especially if the top running backs and wide receivers are off the board. The key is to evaluate your league’s scoring settings and draft accordingly.
The Exceptional Tight End Advantage
While tight ends have historically been an afterthought in fantasy football drafts, a few exceptional players have changed the landscape. Travis Kelce and George Kittle, in particular, have proven to be difference-makers at the position. They consistently produce wide receiver-level statistics while playing a position with less depth.
Securing an elite tight end like Kelce or Kittle can provide a significant advantage over opponents who have to settle for less productive options at the position. In PPR leagues, the extra receptions these tight ends earn can be a game-changer.
If you’re drafting late in the first round and have a chance to grab one of these elite tight ends, it’s worth serious consideration, especially if the top-tier running backs and wide receivers are no longer available.
The Influence of NFL Trends
Fantasy football doesn’t exist in a vacuum; it’s influenced by real-world NFL trends. To make informed decisions in your draft, it’s essential to keep an eye on the evolving landscape of the NFL and how it impacts player performance and fantasy value.
For example, in recent years, the NFL has seen a shift toward more pass-heavy offenses, which has boosted the fantasy value of top wide receivers and quarterbacks. Understanding these trends can help you adjust your draft strategy accordingly.
Additionally, injuries and player performances can drastically affect fantasy football. Stay updated on player news, injury reports, and preseason performances to make informed decisions on draft day.
The Waiver Wire and Trades
While the draft is a critical component of fantasy football, it’s not the only way to build a championship-caliber team. The waiver wire and trades are valuable tools that can help you address roster deficiencies and capitalize on emerging talent during the season.
For example, if you don’t draft an elite running back, you can monitor the waiver wire for breakout players or running backs who become starters due to injuries. Savvy pickups can turn your season around.
Similarly, trading can be a strategic way to improve your team. If you find yourself with an excess of quality players at one position, you can trade for a player of need at another position. Trading allows you to fine-tune your roster as the season progresses.
Conclusion
Determining which position to draft first in fantasy football is a nuanced decision that depends on various factors, including your draft position, league scoring settings, positional scarcity, and personal preferences. There’s no one-size-fits-all answer, but by considering these factors and staying informed about NFL trends and player developments, you can make more informed decisions on draft day.
Remember that fantasy football is as much about adaptability and in-season management as it is about the draft. Be prepared to make strategic pickups from the waiver wire and explore trade opportunities to strengthen your team throughout the season. Ultimately, the key to success in fantasy football is a combination of solid draft strategy, active in-season management, and a little bit of luck.
