A forecast released 100 days before the opening ceremony of the Paris Summer Games predicts that the United States will maintain its dominance by topping the medals table for the fourth consecutive time. Meanwhile, France is expected to experience a significant boost in its medal count, propelled by its status as the host nation, jumping from eighth to third place.
Compiled by the Gracenote virtual medals table using data from key global and continental competitions since the Tokyo Olympics, the forecast places the United States at the forefront, projected to secure 39 gold medals and a total of 123 medals, leading both categories.
France is anticipated to achieve notable success on home soil, forecasted to win 28 gold medals and 55 total medals, marking a substantial increase of 18 golds and 22 medals compared to its performance in Tokyo. This surge in medals is expected to elevate France to the third position on the table, surpassing Japan, the host nation of the previous Games.
China is predicted to maintain its stronghold in second place with 35 gold medals, while Britain, Australia, and Japan are forecasted to secure the fourth highest number of gold medals, each with 13.
However, the participation of athletes from the Russian Olympic Committee is expected to be limited due to sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine. Despite their absence from international competitions since February 2022, Gracenote believes the medal table will still reflect an accurate representation, albeit with some uncertainty surrounding the participation of Russian and Belarusian athletes.
Ukraine, facing challenges in preparation due to ongoing conflict at home, is forecasted to secure three gold medals and a total of 13 medals in Paris.
At the bottom of the table, Tajikistan, Finland, San Marino, Trinidad & Tobago, North Korea, Fiji, Panama, and Vietnam are all predicted to secure a single bronze medal each, highlighting the diversity of countries expected to feature in the medal tally.
