Penn State football is on the brink of its first College Football Playoff appearance, which would create a thrilling atmosphere in State College and serve as a fitting farewell to the current Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions (10-1) must secure a victory over Maryland on Saturday to achieve what would be their first 11-win regular season under head coach James Franklin. A win could also position them to host a first-round playoff game in December.
Path to the Big Ten Championship Game
Three teams are vying for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game against Oregon on December 7 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The scenario is straightforward: Ohio State can secure a rematch with Oregon by defeating Michigan on Saturday, with the Buckeyes favored by 21 points according to DraftKings.
For Penn State to face Oregon in the title game, they need to beat Maryland while hoping Michigan upsets Ohio State. If both Penn State and Ohio State lose, Indiana could claim the championship bid with a win over Purdue. Should all three teams lose, Ohio State would advance to Indianapolis.
Franklin noted that discussions about the Big Ten title game have not dominated their preparations this week. “To be honest, I haven’t spent a lot of time thinking about that,” he said. “I’m completely focused on the Terps and the University of Maryland. After that game, there are many other things that need to happen. But that is a possibility. We want to compete as much as we can this year, and if that includes a conference championship game, we would be very excited about that opportunity.”
Franklin emphasized the importance of focusing solely on the upcoming game against Maryland: “If we’re not focused on that, then a lot of these other things become questionable and challenging.”
Implications of a Championship Appearance
A potential appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game could significantly impact Penn State’s playoff seeding. If the Nittany Lions qualify and defeat Oregon, they could become the No. 1 overall seed for the College Football Playoff, earning a first-round bye and possibly opening quarterfinal play at the Rose Bowl on January 1. Conversely, a loss could complicate their playoff prospects, raising questions about their ranking in relation to Ohio State and Indiana, and whether they would host a playoff game or play on the road.
Playoff Chances
Penn State’s playoff chances appear strong, with ESPN’s College Football Playoff Index giving them a 98.7% likelihood of making the 12-team field, trailing only Oregon and Ohio State. Interestingly, the FPI also estimates an 89.4% chance of Penn State winning out during the regular season and the potential Big Ten title game. ESPN’s metrics suggest that they are viewed as a playoff team regardless of Saturday’s outcome against Maryland.
If the Nittany Lions defeat Maryland but do not play in the Big Ten title game, they would likely secure a 6-8 seed and host a first-round playoff game at Beaver Stadium. One team to watch is Notre Dame, which is also 10-1 and faces USC in its regular-season finale. A decisive win for the Fighting Irish could elevate them above Penn State in the playoff rankings.
Current Projections
Recent projections indicate that Penn State is likely to host a first-round playoff game. The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel predicts the Nittany Lions as the No. 6 seed hosting SMU from the ACC. CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford envisions a matchup between Penn State and Indiana in an 8-9 game, while Jerry Palm forecasts a Big Ten-SEC clash at Beaver Stadium, with No. 7 Penn State taking on No. 10 Tennessee.
Upcoming Game
Penn State will host Maryland at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday in their regular-season finale, which will be broadcast on the Big Ten Network.
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